Michael Henry vs. Letitia James
Geography, Demographics, Issues, and Strategy in New York's Attorney General Race
Electoral Base and Geographic Support
| Factor | Michael Henry | Letitia James |
|---|---|---|
| Core Base | Upstate/rural NY, Long Island, Orthodox Jewish, Asian neighborhoods | NYC urban minorities (Black, Latino, Asian-Am.), young/professionals |
| NYC | Outer boroughs (SI, S. Brooklyn, Queens); weak citywide | Dominant in Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens (>60% NYC share) |
| Suburbs | Strong 2022 surge in Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester; swing voters | Leads but margin reduced in NY suburbs |
| Upstate | Very strong; key turnout driver | Only competitive in select pockets |
Demographic Strengths
| Group | Michael Henry | Letitia James |
|---|---|---|
| White Working/Middle Class | Suburbs, upstate anchor; critical margin | Some suburbs; weak upstate |
| Black voters | Limited | Core base in NYC |
| Latino voters | Selected outreach, esp. conservative enclaves | Urban base |
| Asian-American voters | Growing (Brooklyn/Queens, Nassau) | Strong-recent competition in select areas |
| Orthodox Jewish voters | Established, growing | Contested in Brooklyn |
| Young voters | Traditionally low, moderate 2022 increase | Urban backbone, turnout-dependent |
Policy Platforms and Messaging
| Domain | Michael Henry | Letitia James |
|---|---|---|
| Crime/Public Safety | Bail rollback, public safety, law enforcement | Reform, enforcement balance, gun control |
| Cost of Living/Taxes | Cut taxes, living costs, "one-party rule" | Affordable housing, consumer/taxpayer protection |
| Corruption/Ethics | Anti-corruption, nonpartisan AG | Prosecutions (Trump, NRA), industry lawsuits |
| Education | Parental choice, curriculum | Educational equity |
| Environmental | Less focus | Climate, clean energy |
Voter Priorities and Salient Issues
- Crime/Public Safety: Henry's key message; James balances reform/community safety.
- Cost of Living: Henry: taxes, outmigration; James: housing, tenant rights.
- Corruption: Henry: attacks James’ partisanship; James: high-profile prosecutions.
Recent News and Shock Event Impact
- Letitia James: Bumped by Trump/NRA cases, some dips from mortgage controversy and Dem infighting; strongest with party endorsements.
- Michael Henry: Surfed anti-crime, cost-of-living sentiment in 2022; advanced on city disorder and scandal backlash, highest GOP AG result since 2002.
Political Challenges and Strategic Limitations
| Challenge Type | Michael Henry | Letitia James |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic lock (NYC) | Must dramatically break urban margins | Motivate city/minority base, avoid erosion |
| National environment | Needs GOP wave year or Dem scandal | Relies on blue-wave, especially anti-Trump years |
| Turnout | Needs high GOP, lower Dem turnout in suburbs/city | Risks from youth/minority turnout lapses |
Strategic Region Map (2022 Example)
| Region | Henry's Need | James's Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Upstate/Rural | 60-65%+ turnout/margins | Hold pockets, minimize loss |
| Long Island/Suburbs | 55%+ flip swing towns | Retain 50%+, avoid major slippage |
| NYC | 30%+, boost ethnic/outer-borough | 60-65%+, maximize turnout |
