Results at a Glance (1998-2022)

Margin, Geography, and Demographics

• Urban vs. Rural: Democrats dominate NYC (60%+ share); Upstate and parts of Long Island remain Republican-leaning. Most GOP opportunities now concentrated in outer-borough NYC, Long Island, and upstate rural counties[2][31].
• Margin Evolution: The GOP was competitive statewide in the 1990s. Since 2010, Democratic AG candidates have won by double digits except in special circumstances (e.g., 2022 when GOP gained ground on crime/post-pandemic issues)[2][10][23].
• Suburban Realignment: Once-Republican suburbs like Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk drifted left throughout 2000s and 2010s-critical to growing Dem margins[2][10][23].
• Demographic Edge: Democrats' statewide dominance hinges on high turnout among Black, Latino, Asian-American, and young voters, especially in NYC where minority voters are a majority[8][9][21].
• Turnout: NYC accounted for 40-50% of the statewide vote in recent AG cycles. Minority and youngest voters consistently turn out at lower rates, but even modest improvements can swing margins due to the city’s size[5][8].

Demographic and Geographic Analysis

• Race/Ethnicity: NYC’s majority-minority population is dominant in Democratic coalitions; improved turnout among Black, Latino, and Asian-American voters has been key for recent landslides[8][21].
• Asian-American Impact: Asian voters have shown growing numbers and influence, especially in Queens/Long Island. However, turnout remains lower than white or Black voters, and party loyalty is less automatic (evolving trend post-2020)[20][28].
• Age: Highest turnout rates are seen among older voters 60+, while 18-29 only recently reached double digits share in citywide elections[8][9].
• Suburbs/Exurbs Shift: Since the mid-2000s, Nassau, Westchester, and Suffolk swung from competitive/Republican to solid Democratic, a decisive factor in the growing Dem margin post-2002.
• GOP Opportunities: Republican paths now rely on high turnout in Upstate/rural NY, strong performance in Staten Island, and cutting margins in outer-boroughs of NYC (Brooklyn, Queens) and Long Island[10][23].
• Recent GOP Boost: In 2022, the GOP gained ground in Asian, Orthodox Jewish, and some working-class neighborhoods of Queens/Brooklyn due to pandemic-related and crime concerns, even as NYC overall remained blue[10][23][31].

Margins, Participation, and Shifts Over Time

Correlations and Relationships

• Suburban Realignment Drives Margins: Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties have shifted from swing to reliably Democratic counties, making statewide GOP wins extremely difficult post-2002 even in wave years[2][10].
• NYC Turnout = Democratic Wins: When NYC turnout is high, Democratic statewide victories become landslides, regardless of modest GOP gains Upstate/Long Island[8][9][21].
• Demographic Mobilization: Jumps in turnout among Black, Latino, and Asian voters in NYC, especially in presidential/anti-Trump cycles, are directly associated with expanded Dem victory margins (notably 2018)[8][21][28].
• Third-Party Vote Shrinking: As partisanship has hardened, third-party vote has declined, further polarizing elections[2][31].
• GOP lows and highs correlate with national cycles: 2002, 2010, 2022 (years with stronger-than-usual GOP showings) mirror national shifts (post-9/11, tea party, post-COVID crime fears)[2][10][23].

Takeaways for the Last 25 Years

• New York transitioned from frequent close statewide races in the 1990s to a near Democratic lock from the mid-2000s, driven by demographic, ideological, and suburban realignment.
• Democratic victories rest on turnout and engagement of a diverse, urban, and younger electorate, while GOP opportunities remain tied to turnout lags, “tough-on-crime” backlash, and periods of national Republican surges.
• The state AG race is now a bellwether of broader partisan and demographic trends in New York, showcasing the interplay between NYC, suburbia, and rural upstate dynamics.