Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams, and Curtis Sliwa: 2025 NYC Mayoral Race
The 2025 New York City mayoral election is shaping up as a competitive and dynamic contest featuring progressive newcomer Zohran Mamdani, former governor Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent), incumbent Eric Adams, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. This analysis synthesizes recent polling data, candidate coalitions, and strategic implications based on mid-July 2025 sources.
Poll Standing and Voter Support
- Zohran Mamdani currently leads the general election polls with support ranging approximately 26% to 40%, reflecting variation across recent polls; for example: 26% (HarrisX July 7-8) and up to 40% (Data for Progress mid-July).
- Andrew Cuomo polls between 23% and 31%, with recent HarrisX (23%), American Pulse (29%), and Gotham Polling & Analytics (26%) data confirming mid-to-high 20s support.
- Curtis Sliwa holds solid support in the low 20% range, approximately 20% to 22%, leading the Republican base and surpassing incumbent Eric Adams in multiple polls.
- Eric Adams polls around 13% to 16%, trailing the other major candidates. His net favorability remains notably negative (-34), with modest favorability mainly among Republican voters.
Demographic and Geographic Insights
| Demographic Group | Primary Candidate Support | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Young Voters (18-39) | Zohran Mamdani; strong majority | High enthusiasm for progressive policies, focusing on housing affordability and climate justice. |
| Black Voters | Andrew Cuomo, followed closely by Mamdani | Cuomo retains historical loyalty; Mamdani gaining ground; Adams trailing despite incumbency. |
| Older Voters (55+) | Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams | Both show relative strength, with Adams benefiting from some moderate and Republican crossover votes. |
| Borough Support | Cuomo leads Staten Island and Queens; Mamdani leads Manhattan and Brooklyn | Fragmented electoral geography requires broad coalition-building. |
Election Dynamics and Strategic Considerations
- Vote Splitting: Cuomo and Adams running independently risks splitting moderate and centrist voters, benefiting Mamdani’s path to victory.
- Outside Spending: Cuomo benefits from close to $30 million in outside spending via super PACs, shaping race dynamics significantly.
- Coalition Expansion: Mobilizing Latino voters and expanding beyond core bases is critical for all candidates.
- Messaging Contrast: Mamdani’s progressive platform contrasts with Adams's centrist record and Cuomo's establishment appeal, reflecting diverse voter concerns such as crime, housing, and economic justice.
Summary Table of Key General Election Metrics
| Candidate | Poll Standing (%) | Net Favorability | Fundraising (2025 YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 26 - 40% | +4 | ~$1.1 million |
| Andrew Cuomo | 23 - 31% | -2 | ~$30 million (includes super PAC spending) |
| Curtis Sliwa | 20 - 22% | Neutral to negative | Smaller donor base |
| Eric Adams | 13 - 16% | -34 | Moderate pace, exact totals not publicly consolidated |
Key Takeaways
The 2025 NYC mayoral general election is a highly competitive, multipartite contest with vote-splitting risks primarily among moderates and conservatives. Mamdani’s progressive rise challenges traditional dynamics. Cuomo’s financial advantage and coalition, Sliwa’s Republican base, and Adams’s incumbency all contribute to a fluid and unpredictable race. Effective outreach and turnout efforts will determine the November result.