| Demographic Group | Zohran Mamdani (%) | Andrew Cuomo (%) | Eric Adams (%) | Curtis Sliwa (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 18-39 | 63 | 18 | 9 | 5 |
| Black voters | 25 | 52 | 14 | 6 |
| Latino voters | 38 | 42 | 11 | 6 |
| White voters | 30 | 29 | 22 | 13 |
| Unaffiliated voters | 48 | 30 | 14 | 8 |
Voting patterns between 2020 and 2025 reveal critical trends for the New York City electorate shaping the 2025 mayoral race. With over 1 million unaffiliated voters unable to participate in closed primaries, candidates are challenged to broaden appeal and build diverse coalitions.
The surge in early voting for the 2025 Democratic mayoral primary, particularly in Manhattan, northwest Queens, and Brooklyn, reflects heightened political engagement driven by a younger and more progressive electorate. Approximately one-quarter of early voters were new to Democratic primaries since 2012, signaling a demographic shift in participation.
Party enrollment skews Democrat across younger demographics, but with a significant unaffiliated segment that cannot influence closed primaries without structural reform. Republican enrollment remains highest among older voters, reflecting enduring partisan divides.
Candidate support breaks along these lines: Zohran Mamdani captures majority backing in younger and unaffiliated voters; Andrew Cuomo’s strength lies in older and Black voters; Eric Adams underperforms in most demographic groups and is strongest with moderate and Republican voters; Curtis Sliwa holds a small, public safety-focused niche.
The data strongly suggests that success in 2025 hinges on coalition breadth and mobilization efficacy, especially in outreach to unaffiliated and historically under-participating voters. Future reforms enabling primary participation for unaffiliated voters could significantly reshape voter behavior and electoral outcomes in New York City.
