New York Attorney General Races: Historical Trends
Analyzing 25+ Years of Political, Regional, and Demographic Change
Cycles of Party Control
- Late 1990s-Early 2000s: Highly competitive; Republicans still strong in suburbs/upstate, Spitzer’s 1998 win narrow.
- 2002-2010: Rapid urbanization and demographic drift push AG races toward safer Democratic margins, but suburbs not fully locked.
- Post-2010: Double-digit Democratic wins become the norm except during national “red wave” cycles.
Regional and Demographic Shifts
| Region/Group | 1998 | 2010 | 2022 | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYC core | ~55% Dem | ~62% Dem | ~61% Dem | Consistent, urban lock |
| Suburban (LI/Westchester) | Near even split | Strongly Dem | Competitive, Dem edge narrows (2022) | Most sensitive to national shocks |
| Upstate/rural | Strong GOP | GOP, Dem growth in cities | GOP dominant, some Dem urban holds | Persistent divide |
| Asian/Orthodox/Latino | Smaller, Dem-leaning | Growing, Dem-leaning | Swing/influx points in select boroughs | Rising influence, not uniform |
Partisanship and Third-Party Vote
- 1998-2006: Third parties accounted for 3-5%+; more space for ticket-splitting and protest votes.
- Post-2010: Third-party shrinking (often less than 2%); increasing straight-ticket and polarization.
Issue-driven Wild Swings
- Crime Surges: Drive GOP spikes in outer boroughs, Long Island, select upstate regions (notably 2022).
- Scandals/Oversight: AGs benefit from high-profile investigations when running on reform/anti-corruption platforms (e.g., against Wall St/Trump/NRA/Washington).
- Economic Distress: Suburbs and exurbs the “swing lever” in economic downturn, with depressed city turnout tightening the race.
Mobilization and Turnout Effects
Turnout Share By Region
- High NYC turnout: Correlates with Dem blowouts (e.g., 2018, anti-Trump wave years).
- Low city/minority turnout: Allows GOP to compete, especially amidst high upstate/suburb mobilization.
New and Emerging Trends
- Asian and Orthodox Jewish Bloc: Now a key swing group in carefully targeted precincts; their swing outsized vs. raw vote share.
- Nationalization Down Ballot: AG races increasingly about national themes (Trump investigations, SCOTUS, gun rights) rather than just state issues.
- Erosion of Ticket-Splitting: Down-ballot candidates rise/fall with the party's top-line turnout and enthusiasm.
Timeline and Predictive Patterns
- Late 1990s: Margins close, NYC/suburbs not fully Dem locked.
- 2002-2010: Suburban shift, third-party relevance, city turnout rising.
- 2010-2022: Democratic dominance, national issue surges (crime, scandals) cause compression, not reversal.
- Present: Turnout and suburbs as bellwethers; only “perfect storm” (crime, scandal, economy) can meaningfully threaten Dem hold in normal cycles.
